Will ‘Wicked’ box-office success rejuvenate the tricky business of Broadway adaptations?

It’s not easy to defy gravity as a musical movie, particularly one that’s been adapted from a Broadway play.
But with the record-breaking premiere of Universal Pictures’ “Wicked” last weekend, there may be more reason to try.
The Jon M. Chu-directed adaptation topped the box office with a worldwide gross of $164.2 million, marking the biggest opening weekend for a movie based on a Broadway play, surpassing 2012’s “Les Misérables” ($103 million). The film’s domestic box-office total was $114 million.
Bringing Broadway adaptations to the big screen can be a dicey proposition. For every “Wicked,” there is a box-office flop, such as Universal’s “Cats.”
Film adaptations of Broadway plays come with established fan bases that already have expectations for a movie version, said Shawn Robbins, director of analytics at movie ticket-seller Fandango and founder of tracking site Box Office Theory.
“When they don’t feel the source material is honored, they will let the world know, especially on social media,” he said. “Conversely, when it works, they’ll let people know it, too.”
Universal, in particular, has a long track record of Broadway musical movies. (The studio is also behind a current musical stage adaptation of “Death Becomes Her,” based on the 1992 Universal film.)
The studio has struck box-office gold in the past with the star-studded “Les Miserables” and “Mamma Mia!,” though it has also been panned for adaptations like 2019’s “Cats,” which was lampooned for its uncanny blending of CGI and real-life stars (such as Taylor Swift) to create the singing felines.
Universal’s 2021 adaptation of “Dear Evan Hansen” also faltered after receiving brutal reviews.
Lately, other movie musicals have misfired at the box office.
Warner Bros. Pictures’ comic book sequel “Joker: Folie à Deux” stumbled in theaters this fall, grossing just $206 million worldwide on a reported budget of at least $190 million before marketing. Earlier this year, Paramount Pictures’ “Mean Girls” raised eyebrows for downplaying its musical roots in trailers and received lukewarm reviews from critics, though it met analysts’ box-office expectations. Warner Bros.’ “The Color Purple” struggled too.
It’s tough to bring the energy of a live stage production to the big screen, not to mention choosing the right play to adapt in the first place. Successful Broadway-to-Hollywood productions typically have a relatable story for audiences, memorable music and are well-known enough to bring out loyal fans of the stage show as well as people who had always heard about the play but never went.
“The studios are very wary of losing money. They’re also very wary of musicals because they are a very distinct genre that people either really love or hate, and that doesn’t bode well for the box office,” said Desiree Garcia, associate professor at Dartmouth College, who wrote a book called “The Movie Musical.” “So how do you have a musical, but also not break the bank to have it? The tried-and-true product from the stage is the way to do it.”
It also helps that “Wicked” is based on decades of previous intellectual property. The film is adapted from the long-running stage play of the same name, which itself is loosely based on the 1995 novel by Gregory Maguire, a reimagining of 1939’s film musical, “The Wizard of Oz” and the original L. Frank Baum book.
“We are a studio that, under Donna Langley, likes to take big swings when we see the opportunity,” said Jim Orr, head of domestic distribution at Universal Pictures. “Wicked was definitely a big swing.”
Part of the success of “Wicked” also can be attributed to the studio’s aggressive marketing campaign, which saw Universal partner with 400 brands worldwide, including Target and Starbucks.
Stars Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande were everywhere in the months leading up to the movie’s release, making appearances at the 2024 Paris Olympics (which was broadcast by Universal’s sister division, NBC) and the Oscars, as well as an extensive press tour.
That promotion has also driven interest in the film’s music. Since the film soundtrack came out Nov. 22, the signature song “Defying Gravity,” performed by Erivo as Elphaba and Grande as Glinda, has been streamed on Spotify almost 4.9 million times. Grande’s upbeat “Popular” is right behind it, at nearly 4.6 million streams.
“Wicked: Part Two” is scheduled for release next year, which analysts expect will be highly anticipated.
That audience anticipation could convince other studios to reconsider musicals, “and not treat them as the black sheep of genres,” said Robbins of Fandango. “That’s probably going to be a big takeaway.”